Tuesday, December 22, 2009

False Illusions and What You Need to Know

Homebuyer Alert…
For prospective homebuyers who are on the fence about making a home purchase, the next few months represent a countdown of sorts for two reasons.

The first of these, the coming expiration of huge tax incentives, may be a bit more obvious to most borrowers. April 30, 2010 is the last day to enter into a home purchase contract and still potentially qualify for a federal income tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and up to $6,500 for repeat homebuyers. The credit can be claimed only on contracts that close by June 30, 2010.
Secondly, beyond the waning benefit of the Federal income tax incentive, another form of stimulus will soon disappear, as the Federal Reserve winds down a program that has been keeping home loan rates artificially low.

Rate Alert…
The lowest rates of 2009 were driven down to their attractive levels because of the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) purchase program. Home loan rates have an inverse relationship with the value of MBS. When these securities trade higher on the market, rates move lower and vice-versa. So when the Fed originally agreed to be a big buyer, it helped provide a market for MBS, which helped keep prices high and, as a result, helped push home loan rates low.
And while the Fed continues that program through the end of March 2010, the reality is that the Fed‘s “extension” was really more of a rationing intended to prevent home loan rates from spiking as the program is phased out. It’s sort of like weaning the market off of its life-saving treatment instead of forcing it to go cold turkey.
Already, some in the media have mistakenly reported the extension of the program through March as good news, telling consumers that rates will continue to decline, and remain low into the spring. This gives a false sense of security that homebuyers and refinancers simply cannot afford.
The problem is…
Those reports do not accurately report what’s going on or where rates are really headed. That can have a very costly impact on consumers who may miss out on historically low rates if they listen to these media outlets.

Here’s what’s really going on…In May 2009, the Federal Reserve's purchases of MBS peaked at an average of $25 Billion per week. As of November, the average weekly purchases dropped down to $14 Billion. At the end of November, the Fed had already used over 80% of the allocated funds for MBS, meaning less than 20% remained to be used over four months.
Making the problem worse is that the Fed now has less money available to purchase MBS while at the same time, the supply of these securities has increased as a result of refinance and purchase activity that was triggered by lower rates.

Why is that important?

As the Fed now has fewer funds to last through the remaining months of the program, its ability to keep rates low will wane.As the Fed's program winds down and ends, we’ll likely see two things happen.
First, we will probably see higher levels of volatility—with rates sometimes shifting dramatically in the middle of the day. That means it is more important than ever for buyers to work with a knowledgeable mortgage professional who has a finger on the pulse of the market at all times and can provide trusted, proven advice.
Second, since MBS will have less support from the Fed, rates are likely to rise over time.
In short, while rates are still very good, they may not be for long.

What should you do to protect yourself?

First and foremost, work with a knowledgeable mortgage originator who studies and monitors the market.
Second, don’t be fooled by media stories that only report the headlines and don’t understand the underlying implications of the Fed’s actions. If you ever hear something in the news but aren’t sure what it means to your situation, Please contact your Financial Advisor to see how the Feds' actions effect you and your financial situation.

Finally, if you haven't yet explored how the current rate environment might benefit you or someone you know, let’s arrange a time to sit down and discuss your unique situation as well as your short- and long-term goals. Remember, rates are still very good, but they may not be for long.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

THE 5 THINGS YOU MUST KNOW ABOUT BUYING REAL ESTATE AND GETTING A MORTGAGE IN 2010

THE 5 THINGS YOU MUST KNOW ABOUT BUYING REAL ESTATE AND GETTING A MORTGAGE IN 2010

1. NEW Good Faith Estimates take effect- on January 1st, 2010, RESPA(Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act) which is one set of governing bodies over the real estate, mortgage and title industry is implementing a new 3 page estimate of settlement costs and new settlement statement that all industry providers must use. The goal of RESPA with these changes is to make settlement costs more transparent to homebuyers and home refinancers and at the same time guarantee certain costs to consumers. We do see it as helpful to the industry and consumers however it will take several months for all industry players to get all the working parts of it working smoothly. How could this affect you? Consumer will be more informed however RESPA has implemented very tedious rules for lenders that may cause the need for homebuyers and sellers to be more flexible with a settlement date. Bottom Line: A target date for settlement may become more normal versus a specific day and time for settlement.

2. INTEREST RATES- On March 31st, 2010 the Federal Reserve will end a program in which they have purchased $1.25 Trillion in Mortgage-Backed-Securities(MBS). The reason mortgage rates have been so low in the past 12 months is because of MBS purchases. The Federal Reserve did this to purposely drive down mortgage interest rates to potentially spur more home sales to in turn help the economy return to some sort of normal sooner rather than later. To keep it simple, mortgage interest rates drop when there are a lot of buyers of MBS and inversely mortgage rates go up when there are a lot of sellers in the MBS market. So, if rates went down to around 4.5% APR for the last year because the Federal Reserve was systematically buying $1.25 Trillion of MBS, what needs to happen as they end this program and start to sell their MBS portfolio? If you said rates must go up you are absolutely correct! As the largest investor(Federal Reserve) in the MBS market sells their holdings rates will rise. The biggest question still looming is how fast will the Federal Reserve sell their MBS portfolio after March 31st? The answer to this will be determined by how well the economy does in 2010. Many Federal Reserve members have stated that they understand that they need to be cautious in how fast they sell MBS because if they sell too fast rates could rise dramatically and quickly which would not be in the best interest of overall economic stability. We expect mortgage interest rates to stay relatively low in the 1st quarter of 2010 but will rise significantly by mid year with average rates expected between 6% to 6.5% on 30 year fixed mortgages for the second half of 2010. Bottom Line: It is possible that the next 3 months will be the last time in our lifetimes that we can get a 4.5% APR 30 year mortgage! I would recommend that if you can, buy a home or refinance your current home before the end of April 2010.

3. TAX CREDITS - On April 30, 2010 the tax credit for first time homebuyers of $8000 and the $6500 tax credit for those who have owned a primary residence 5 of the last 8 years will end. Tax credit recipients will have until June 30th 2010 to actually settle on the home purchased. Bottom Line: You must find a home to buy by April 30, 2010 and settle by June 30, 2010 to take advantage of this opportunity.

4. INDUSTRY CHANGES- 2009 saw more than 60% of mortgage companies go out of business and many good mortgage consultants have been forced from the industry as well. More than 60% of mortgage products that existed 3 years ago are gone. The Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Reserve along with State regulatory bodies have forced new and imposing regulations on the mortgage industry on a regular basis throughout 2009 with more coming. A lot of the regulations will eventually be helpful however to have multiple changes and new rules implemented multiple times monthly every month makes for a lot more red tape for consumers to get a mortgage. There is currently a 1271 page document floating through congress that will add even more regulation change to the industry and until lenders know what the rules will ultimately be which appears to be coming in mid 2010, requirements to obtain a mortgage will continue to be tough and get tougher. Bottom Line: Start working on your mortgage options well in advance of choosing a home to purchase.

5. YOU- What can you do with this information to take advantage of the situation for you and your family? Understanding that mortgage rates will be rising at some point in 2010 and that tax credits are due to end by the end of April it is highly recommended that you start looking into your mortgage options as soon as possible. Also, be sure to get educated on all current market conditions. Ask how new mortgage regulations will affect you, ask about tax credit pre-approval, ask for free mortgage pre-approval, ask about buying short sale and foreclosure properties, ask about seller assistance, ask about low and no money down mortgages, ask what you should budget for a housing payment to be safe. Bottom Line: Get educated, search your options now and if you can buy a home before April 30, 2010.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

If a little paint is needed will you do it to get your house SOLD?

If a little paint is needed will you do it to get your house SOLD?
Why is it that everyone who is trying to sell their house is always complaining about the market conditions and yet still refusing to do what is suggested to move their property?
Today with inventory up and fewer buyers jumping into home ownership and the tax credit days numbered-sellers need to get on board with doing what is needed to neutralize their homes.
A little paint & scrub brush can go a long way- along with fresh linens, new hardware, a new light fixtures are inexpensive and well worth the few $ and time.
In the end a small investment will be much less than a price reduction.
I suggest seller invest 1% to get their homes market ready. With price adjustments from $5k-$10k a small investment can go a long way.
For more info on staging visit http://www.YorkHomeListings.com/staging.html
& Return on staging investments.

Monday, October 5, 2009

"Sales Stats for York PA thru 8-31-09'

Well the stats for year over year sales for the York PA area are here. Overall the York PA area has seen a 3% decline in Median home prices and a 7% decline in the total units sold compared to same period in 2008. Many in the Real Estate profession here locally in York PA expected total units sold to be above the 2008 lows with incentives like FHA interest rates in the high 4's to low 5%'s, a $8000 Tax Credit for 1st time buyers, aggressive listing prices and a PHFA $5000 Tax Credit Advance to help 1st timers enter home ownership.

Compared to our -27% decline in total units sold thru August 2008 over same period in 2007---all in all I am please at the 1st eight months of this year----it will be interesting to see what happens over the traditionally slower 3rd & 4th quarters. With the possibility of the Fed's not extending the 1st time buyer tax credit I would expect to see these numbers continue to adjust downward thru 2010.

Many different areas have been affected by this ever changing market --- some areas, like the Central and Dover School District areas have seen price adjustments for the 1st eight months at -4 out of 16 reporting districts reports a small increase in Median values-----this does not factor in closing cost assistance paid by sellers which can further adjust the prices by 3-6%.

Whether you are looking to sell your present home of looking to make a purchase being informed of the market affecting your investment is imperative.

Follow the statistics as they are posted by visiting http://housingstats.yorkhomelistings.com
regularly.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

To Sell now or wait?

If you want to buy up should you do it now? Or wait til prices come down a bit more?

For many existing home owners this is a common question. In most cases selling now while you have equity to produce the funds needed for today's financing - down payment & closing costs- selling now and buying that dream home is my recommendation. We know what comparable properties are selling for and can determine how much of that equity you need for your purchase. We also know that today we have interest rates around 5% or lower.

Waiting til that dream home comes down another $15k, $25k or even $40k may seem like a good reason to wait however what many existing home owners do not realize is that while their dream home adjusts in price so does their existing home.

Many existing home owners are putting themselves at risk of not having the money to make their purchase. As the market adjusts so does they cash funds that are needed to purchase that dream home.

It is imperative that home owners be fully educated about the possible risks if waiting for a slightly better price on that new house.

1. Interest rates of the future are unknown- they can't get better that what we have today.

2. The criteria for a mortgage approval is changing all of the time- today we have stricter guidelines than just a few months ago with higher credit score requirements and tighter debt-to-income ratios.

3. While they wait for anticipated price adjustment on that dream house to hit-their existing house is also adjusting. The money needed to make a purchase is dwindling away every time the market adjusts down.

4. More competition will be in the market place. More seller will be putting their "starter" home on the market increasing the available competition and these sellers will now also be looking for those "good" deals of "buy up" properties. This will limit your ability to negotiate as there will be more and more players all going after the same inventory.

Today we have an abundance of homes available in all price ranges and in all areas.

Taking advantage of the "Right Now" is my suggestion for most consumers who are looking for a place to call home for at least the next 5 years.

Whether you are a 1st buyer, a seller looking to buy up or downsize or looking to exit the home ownership world- ACT TODAY - waiting just might cost you thousands in the end and prevent your dreams from ever coming true.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Hello,

Here is some great information as to how the housing market has been affected here in York Co.

Attached are the housing stats found monthly on www.RAYAC.com.

Housing Stats & Housing Snapshot

Take a look at how your area compares from 2007 to present---now that stats are in thru June 30th this give us a great idea of where we are compared to our peak prices from 2006-2007 depending on what area you live in.

You will see that the Southern end of the co has started to stabilize somewhat--they have felt the market affects much sooner than that of the rest of the co....their values went up faster and higher earlier on and they were most affected during the adjustment periods as early as late 2005.

For example:

Dallastown School Dist: in 2007 median home prices were $204k with 266 homes sold in the 1st 6 mos whereas this year median prices are at $174k with only 213 homes sold compared to 266 in same period 2007 (that's is factoring in the 1st time buyers spike we had during April & may with the $8000 tax credit and 4.75% FHA mortgage rates) Over all this is showing us that we have a decrease in Median Home prices from 2007 to 2009 of -15% and total units sold are down by -20%.

The unfortunate thing about these reports is that they do not calculate in any closing cost incentive that were paid by the seller which further reduce the sale price bottom line. It would be fair to say that a large % of the more recent sales have included 3-6% in seller paid closing costs. During 2007 we were still able to access the 80/20 100% financing programs and buyers were able to cover their closing costs themselves for the most part. With today's financing terms requiring the buyers to invest at least 3.5-5% in down payment funds alone they have turned to the sellers more and more to cover the closing costs.

When you factor in these additional seller expenses it further reduces the bottom line and it would be fair to factor in an adjustment of 3% less off of the median prices.

We have recently had reports that state that the new construction starts were up by 11% and prices are trending towards stabilizing. Again, the reports and stats are compared to the months prior and not a snapshot of where we are today compared to same period last year of 2007.

Yes housing has had a positive reaction to the tax credit incentive and the lower 30 year fixed rates but we are still way off of our record high of 2006-2007.

It is and has been my opinion that we are not necessarily in a declining market but a correction market to what should have never happened to begin with. housing prices should increase at a 3-5% rate year over year---not 10, 15 or even 20% in one year alone. When prices go up too high too fast they will in the end need to balance out to reflect what should be a more normal appreciation ratio.

On average York Co housing prices are up over 54% for the past 10 years--that is a yearly increase of 5% for each year for the last 10 years---factoring in all of the ups and downs we have had during the last decade. We experienced a slight dip during the 9/11 period, then went way up and now we are balancing out. All in all this is what is normal in any 10 year period.

If you purchased or refinanced during this "housing peak" is is likely that you are seeing a decline in what you have into your investment. Many homeowners who are trying to sell today are feeling first hand the affects of the market over these last 2 years and are struggling to get sold for what they now have invested into they homes or what they feel their home was worth during this peak period. All in all i believe there is still about 10% or more of pricing adjustments we will see here in the coming months. I also believe we will go back to the basics and should expect that after prices stabilize we will sit still for a period and then begin to see the 3-5% increases year over year---not quarter over quarter or month over month.

Take a look at your specific area and property details to see where you fall in this market adjustment period. If you purchased during the peak for your area then you are most likely felling a decline in value at this time. Same holds true if you refinanced and took equity out of your home at that time. if you have made improvements to your house you may have been able to lessen the decrease but most likely have not gained much if anything at all.

If you are purchasing at this time you know with certainty that what you will purchase will be less than what you would have paid 2 years ago and the numbers will balance out in the end---most often the higher priced homes are harder hit by the market adjustments and if you are buying up you will probably save way more than what you feel your loss is on your sale.

If you have any questions about your specific property let me know---we can always run comps to show exactly where things were for your property during 2007 compared to today.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Is it time to sell or should I wait?

I am faced every week with Homeowners who are questioning if now it the time to sell or should they wait til the market "comes back". I feel that we still have some adjustments to go, York has been trailing way behind the national averages and is just coming into our "peak" of foreclosures and homeowners falling behind on mortgage payments. This leaves us with some softening in prices still to come.

Right now buyers are out there taking advantage of the "Spring" season, low interest rates (4.5-5%) and the 1st time buyer tax credit of $8000. they have been told its a buyers market and so they are getting in on it.

Over the last 2 months I have not been able to keep listing inventory as they are selling. Often we are finding ourselves as sellers with multiple offers. My sellers are getting full asking price without having to pay closing costs or are able to add the closing cost that the buyer wants/needs to the price of the property---again giving them their full list price.

As an ASP (Accredited Staging Professional) I am able to assist my sellers with having their home enter the market in "move in" condition therefore buyers want to react quickly and are willing to pay full price(of course it must be priced within the market comparables).

Whether you live in your home and need some enhancement staging services or your home is now vacant we can pull it together and GET STAGED to GET SOLD.

As a homeowner how do you feel staging can help you in this market?

As a buyer how does homes that are staged help you with the buying process?

As another Real Estate Professional what are your experiences on assisting your clients with staging?

thanks,

Kimberly

Wednesday, March 25, 2009