Hello,
Here is some great information as to how the housing market has been affected here in York Co.
Attached are the housing stats found monthly on www.RAYAC.com.
Housing Stats & Housing Snapshot
Take a look at how your area compares from 2007 to present---now that stats are in thru June 30th this give us a great idea of where we are compared to our peak prices from 2006-2007 depending on what area you live in.
You will see that the Southern end of the co has started to stabilize somewhat--they have felt the market affects much sooner than that of the rest of the co....their values went up faster and higher earlier on and they were most affected during the adjustment periods as early as late 2005.
For example:
Dallastown School Dist: in 2007 median home prices were $204k with 266 homes sold in the 1st 6 mos whereas this year median prices are at $174k with only 213 homes sold compared to 266 in same period 2007 (that's is factoring in the 1st time buyers spike we had during April & may with the $8000 tax credit and 4.75% FHA mortgage rates) Over all this is showing us that we have a decrease in Median Home prices from 2007 to 2009 of -15% and total units sold are down by -20%.
The unfortunate thing about these reports is that they do not calculate in any closing cost incentive that were paid by the seller which further reduce the sale price bottom line. It would be fair to say that a large % of the more recent sales have included 3-6% in seller paid closing costs. During 2007 we were still able to access the 80/20 100% financing programs and buyers were able to cover their closing costs themselves for the most part. With today's financing terms requiring the buyers to invest at least 3.5-5% in down payment funds alone they have turned to the sellers more and more to cover the closing costs.
When you factor in these additional seller expenses it further reduces the bottom line and it would be fair to factor in an adjustment of 3% less off of the median prices.
We have recently had reports that state that the new construction starts were up by 11% and prices are trending towards stabilizing. Again, the reports and stats are compared to the months prior and not a snapshot of where we are today compared to same period last year of 2007.
Yes housing has had a positive reaction to the tax credit incentive and the lower 30 year fixed rates but we are still way off of our record high of 2006-2007.
It is and has been my opinion that we are not necessarily in a declining market but a correction market to what should have never happened to begin with. housing prices should increase at a 3-5% rate year over year---not 10, 15 or even 20% in one year alone. When prices go up too high too fast they will in the end need to balance out to reflect what should be a more normal appreciation ratio.
On average York Co housing prices are up over 54% for the past 10 years--that is a yearly increase of 5% for each year for the last 10 years---factoring in all of the ups and downs we have had during the last decade. We experienced a slight dip during the 9/11 period, then went way up and now we are balancing out. All in all this is what is normal in any 10 year period.
If you purchased or refinanced during this "housing peak" is is likely that you are seeing a decline in what you have into your investment. Many homeowners who are trying to sell today are feeling first hand the affects of the market over these last 2 years and are struggling to get sold for what they now have invested into they homes or what they feel their home was worth during this peak period. All in all i believe there is still about 10% or more of pricing adjustments we will see here in the coming months. I also believe we will go back to the basics and should expect that after prices stabilize we will sit still for a period and then begin to see the 3-5% increases year over year---not quarter over quarter or month over month.
Take a look at your specific area and property details to see where you fall in this market adjustment period. If you purchased during the peak for your area then you are most likely felling a decline in value at this time. Same holds true if you refinanced and took equity out of your home at that time. if you have made improvements to your house you may have been able to lessen the decrease but most likely have not gained much if anything at all.
If you are purchasing at this time you know with certainty that what you will purchase will be less than what you would have paid 2 years ago and the numbers will balance out in the end---most often the higher priced homes are harder hit by the market adjustments and if you are buying up you will probably save way more than what you feel your loss is on your sale.
If you have any questions about your specific property let me know---we can always run comps to show exactly where things were for your property during 2007 compared to today.
